Image from Drudge
Upon waking up early this morning, the TV news says that Hurricane Irene has been downgraded to a Category One storm, with wind gusts of about 90 mph. Despite that, every TV reporter and anchorperson sound downright hysterical. Just listen to the near-panic in their voices.
This lends credence to Dr. Simon Atkins’ analysis.
Atkins is the CEO of Advanced Forecasting Corporation. He claims on August 26, 2011, that:
“The hype over Hurricane Irene is overblown. From the get-go, Irene was not a power storm. Her goal was to become wide, not internally powerful. The storm became too big too quickly and it cannot master its own strength. North of Delaware, most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds.”
Here are his predictions:
- The demise of Irene has already begun. There is no visible eye. The storm intensity is down to 99 mph. This would be a low-end category 2 or a strong category 1 storm, while 36 hours ago some predicted a catastrophic category 4 storm. Air Force Reserve aircraft have found that Irene’s eyewall has collapsed, and the central pressure has risen — rising pressure means a weakening storm.
- The reduction in storm intensity likely confirms that this storm is not going to be as monstrous as it has been publicly forecast to be.
- Yes, it will be windy. However, north of Delaware most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds. There will be wind damage over eastern-most North Carolina as well as some storm surge flooding up the Pamlico Sound.
- Surging waters are a concern, because they typically cause over 85% of the loss of life in hurricanes.
- Some houses in the Hamptons will be flooded and destroyed.
- Flooding might occur in New York’s Battery Park Subway station and on the FDR Drive since the city could get up to 8 inches of rain.
- There may be some New England neighborhoods submerged due to rivers overflowing.
- With 90% confidence, we predict a total damage bill below $1 billion. Unless there is an unexpected secondary or tertiary event, this is not going to be a huge-loss storm.
~Eowyn
I was very relieved to see the storm downgraded this morning. It started raining here around 5:30. We do have some heavy wind gusts but nothing significant yet. The volume of rain will be critical to my area since our water table is high and drainage is poor. I’ll accept all prayers for a continued downgrade.
Prayers coming your way, hrmfc! May your Guardian Angel keep you close to him, and you and your family be safe from the storm.
Glad to read this since it has been driving me nuts to be bombarded by the hype over this “storm in a tea cup”; you would think that we are watching another Katrina to listen to all the government leaders ordering people to evacuate. My healthy paranoia makes me wonder if they are just testing their effective power over the people? Just a thought and possibly incorrect.
Brit you are so right abt the power play. They are practicing. Good call!
Told ya so. I haven’t been wrong on a major weather event in 35 years. It is all abt ratings and control. My dad was always 100 per cent spot on abt weather till he died at 85. I hate the hype soooo much!!!!!
To see some of the hysterical MSM types on the boob tube, you would think Irene is the proverbial “Storm of the Century.”
-Dave
part of a plan to evacuate people from their homes so looters can come in and steal.
I wrote a comment about this last night….both myself & Mr Artist were immediately convinced we smelled something a bit rattish…..we don’t usually fall into the FEMA camp conspiracy theory crowd but the idea of completely evacuating EVERYONE & shutting down the NYC subway system ( this is the creepiest ) seems a bit squishy to us…..I do think that with Obama failing, whomever is behind Obama may be feeling the power they thought was in their grasp slipping away…..this feels like a test run to see how easy it would be to move the population if they “needed” to….
and I don’t trust Mr “I love the Mosque, no Clergy at 9/11 anniversary” no way no how.
there is a storm and I do hope that everyone uses their head and stays safe and there isn’t much damage but this is a crisis that Obama & Co. don’t want to go to waste.
I just heard that Obama is touring some FEMA offices/facilities…this, all this boy crying “wolf” stuff, is all campaign posturing,
“see, the Great Leader isn’t like Bush about Katrina”….he CARES about you…..bla bla bla
makes me want to hurl, the sick little manipulative Cretin in Chief!
I agree that there has been some real hype over this. However, you know
how people are. If you don’t scare hell out of them; they will go along as though nothing is happening at all. Sometimes you just have to put a boot in their ass to get them moving.
I strongly prefer a classic California earthquake to an Atlantic hurricane. The protracted agony from slow moving storms and non-stop hysteria from the broadcast media is too much to bear. In California, you learn how to prepare / mitigate damage / recover at school and on the job.
It is best to prepare for a storm, but not to get hysterical about it. Don’t you guys think that if this was a ‘set up’, a ‘dry-run’ for the Gov’t that it can back-fire? If nothing major happens, then would people really want to pack up and leave the next time something major comes around?
May be only Category 1, but the problem is that it’s so big and so slow moving… not as bad is at could be, but stuff that’s unaccustomed to being bashed may get a moderate bashing for a while.
Have no fear. Obama’s on the job!
http://news.yahoo.com/obama-takes-charge-hurricane-command-center-172139005.html
ROFLMAO!
And be sure to read the comments.
-Dave
that’s hilarious!!! Skippy ain’t fooling no one this time…
This is a two-part trial. first to see how good people respond. Second by crying wolf, when a real event,storm etc.. happens many more people than usual in the circumstances will be killed because they won’t believe or take it seriously.
This was a REAL event. We had 24 hours and 12 inches of rain. We are still experiencing heavy winds . The only reason OC, MD was saved was the fact that the storm surge matched up with low tide rather than high tide. My niece had a tree in front of her home catch on fire. My nephew had two treees in his neighbor’s yards go down. My sister had a tree in her front yard go down. Branches broke on a neighbor’s river birch. Another neighbor lost an apple tree. My brother in law had to detour on three different routes to get to my father in law’s home. A dear friend has a lake in front of her home and the national guard evacuated some of her neighbors from their homes. These events occurred in Virginia, Md. and NJ. Believe me I do not credit the administration with anything but I have respect for the power of Mother Nature.
I knew the hurricane wasn’t going to be a big deal right when I heard about it.
Tell this to the folks in VT and upstate NY. The are and will be reeling from the damage for months to come. http://youtu.be/f1tCdtoMzsU
Hey, Gin:
Are you always so emotional, instead of clear-headed, in your thinking? To say that Irene was over-hyped does NOT mean anyone said there wouldn’t be any damage from Irene. Though downgraded to a Category One, Irene still carried a punch — but it wasn’t the apocalyptic catastrophe the media and NY mayor Bloomberg made it out to be. How would you like it if you had obeyed Bloomberg’s order to evacuate from your home in New York city, then come back to discover that (1) There was no flooding; and (2) While you were gone, looters came and ransacked your home? Hmm?
Dr. Eowyn,
I am typically a very clear-headed individual, so I apologize for coming off as too emotional. The music to that video link is a bit over the top.
I live in the Boston area and we too had just as much hype and excessive media coverage, but having been through many other storms of much worse magnitude (strong winter Nor’easters), I tend to take the media hype with a grain of salt.
With regard to Bloomberg ordering evacuations, wouldn’t you rather have the government, with all of its known flaws, err on the side of caution? How could they really predict the outcome of this storm on the city – there is not a lot of precedence. It could have gone either way (i.e. no evacuation orders given and millions of people die from a 60 ft storm surge).
It is a tough call and yes, I agree, the media over hyped this one for the majority of the east coast, but the path of the storm caused much worse damage on it’s west side than it did on those in its path or to the east.
I guess if I had the choice of being looted or drowning in a flood, I let the looters have their way.
BTW, just found your blog from a link to the story in Fish News Daily (http://www.fishnewsdaily.com/). Very interesting. I may come back for more if you will have me
Dear Gin,
Of course, you are welcome here!!! My apologies if I too quickly stomped on your head. LOL